Study: A climate risk analysis of Earth’s forests in the 21st century (Sep. 2022)

Climate change is having negative effects on forests through extreme heat, drought, and disturbances. Predicting the impact of future climate change on forests is challenging because each approach relies on assumptions and incomplete data. Anderegg et al. compared results from three major modeling approaches that provide information on different facets of risk: a global mechanistic vegetation model, which estimates forest carbon loss; a climate envelope model, which provides information on species shifts; and empirical assessment of forest loss to disturbance using satellite imagery. These approaches provide complementary information but highlight the high overall risk to forests in the southern boreal, dry tropics, and central Europe.

(Co-authors: William Anderegg, Chao Wu, Nezha Acil, Nuno Carvalhais, Thomas Pugh, Jon Sadler and Rupert Seidl)

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